The Russian FSB has announced that it is beginning an investigation into Yevgeny Prigozhin whom they accuse of inciting rebellion against the Russian military. Arguably the closest person outside the conventional military to President Putin, Prigozin is known by the alias, “Putin’s Chef”.
This further underscores his closeness to the Russian strongman, and it is my analysis that the Wagner Private Military Company which Prigozhin runs is meant to serve as Putin’s fallback option in a situation he falls out with the Russian conventional military.
Wagner’s Expanding Footprint:
Prigozhin has enormous resources at his disposal and Wagner’s footprints are seen beyond the shores of Russia, including in Syria and a good number of African countries, where they are critical to advancing Russian economic and political interests, through support for either government forces or militia threatening the government of any nation where Russia has an interest. From Mali to Sudan, up to Togo and various other countries, Wagner’s presence is strong and formidable.
Wagner’s Involvement in the Conflict in Ukraine and Clashes with Russian Military
In the ongoing immoral invasion of Ukraine by Russia, Wagner personnel have played prominent roles in fighting for Russia, and Prigozin has not failed to assert his position as an independent military organisation, on many occasions, disagreeing openly with the Russian Minister of Defence; Shoigu and other top military generals in Russia might have had enough of Prigozin’s insults and may have decided to reign him and his PMC in.
Prigozhyn’s Refusal to Sign Contract with Ministry of Defence Raises Concerns
First, there is a military directive that all PMCs in Russia must sign a contract with the Ministry of Defence, and Prigozin had out rightly rejected the proposal and vowed not to sign any contract with the Ministry of Defence.
Just today, he claimed that the Russian military bombed a camp harbouring his fighters and killed “dozens” of them and vowed to retaliate. The Russian military is not taking this threat kindly, as they have initiated an investigation on the man who is largely seen as an untouchable in Russia.
Putin’s Dilemma:
This development will no doubt put Putin in a very unpleasant situation, as he will be torn between shielding his longstanding confidante from the military or losing the loyalty and support of the Russian military.
Whatever he decides, he stands a big risk of facing some unprecedented internal revolt. Should he decide to sacrifice Prigozhin, the Wagner mercenary is big and well-armed that if they decide to revolt, it might be a major incident that can topple the Putin dictatorship and should he try to stop the military from reigning in Prigozin at this point, then, he will definitely have the conventional military to contend with.
Caution for Ukrainian Strategists:
However, Ukrainian military tacticians must not take this crisis between Prigozin and the Russian military at face value, as it could be a camouflage to distract the Ukrainians from the ongoing counter-offensive.
Read Also: Russia Is an Enemy of Peace
- Script Credit: ONWUASOANYA FCC JONES
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