For the benefit of those who requested that I attach the Parties of the candidates I am projecting to win the various national assembly elections in Imo State, here is a more detailed analysis.
Senate:
1. Imo West: LP/APC. However, should the PDP candidate succeed with his application for Supreme Court review, my position here will be significantly impacted.
2. Imo North: PDP/APC. Depending on the outcome of the suit in court over the Labour Party’s candidacy. Should the Labour Party succeed in fielding a candidate, then, I expect the Ararume effect to play a major role, which may push the APC to a distant third position, while the LP and PDP go head-to-head in the contest.
3. Imo East: PDP/LP: Uche Onyeagucha is unbeatable in this election. He has worked hard for the victory he looks set to enjoy. His grassroots campaign is significant and his populist bent on issues has earned him the love of the people, such that the LP wave that Onyewuchi is banking on, will do little to the solid chances of the PDP.
Onyeagucha will clear the Mbaise votes with a good margin, he is expected to dust Onyewuchi in Owerri federal constituency where they both hail from, while the Mbaike area will be a battleground.
However, the APC candidate, Alex Mbata can spring a surprise by displacing Onyewuchi to come second. Mbata would have been a candidate but for the deserved stigma following the APC in Imo State. For the records, if I have a vote to cast in the Owerri zone Senate it will go to the APGA candidate, Chyma Anthony.
House Of Representatives:
1. Ideato: PDP/LP: We expect that Hope Uzodimma shall throw in everything to stop Ikenga from winning. For the governor, any other candidate can win, but not Ikenga. The APC candidate will suffer the worst betrayal in politics, as a number of his campaign staff and officials will abandon him on the day of the election to support the Labour Party candidate on the instruction of the governor.
Some top APC functionaries from the area including an SWC member are currently supporting the Accord Party, while top appointees of Governor Uzodimma are holding secret meetings and collecting money from the Labour Party candidate.
But, Ikenga has worked hard enough and broken into all vital voting blocs, he is expected to prevail against all the conspiracies and arsenals directed at him. Ideato North is safe in the PDP’s pocket, even though, even with expected anti-Party activity from George Igbo and a few disgruntled PDP leaders, Ikenga has invested a lot in capturing the grassroots that the efforts by some ‘bigwigs’ will be insignificant.
Ideato South is expected to be the battleground. However, there are feelers that former governor Okorocha and current Governor Uzodimma might prevail on the Accord Party candidate to step down for Pascal Obi of the Labour Party. If that happens, then, it shall be a boost to the Labour Party candidate. However, all things remain the same, Ikenga should win well.
2. Oguta-Ohaji-Oru-West: PDP/APC: The APC candidate, Eugene Dibiagwu should have been the candidate to beat in this race but for the atrocious escapades of his Party in the oil-rich region, which has seen the displacement of families, widowing of young women and devastation of their economic well-being.
Dibiagwu who has a long history of deep-reaching community development efforts and humanitarian services is significantly hampered by his choice of the political Party platform, and this is to the advantage of Uju Kingsley who has significantly penetrated the creeks of the oil region starting from his time as the all-powerful commissioner and Deputy Chief of Staff during the Okorocha days.
The LP candidate has an outside chance of causing an upset, which depends on his ability to exploit the Peter Obi wave to his advantage.
3. Orlu: PDP/LP: The most qualified candidate in this contest is the Labour Party candidate, Geff Ojinika, but he doesn’t seem to have the deep pocket that the PDP and APC candidates boast of.
Apart from the zoning sentiments, Kingseoul, the Okorocha protege, is also spending a lot of money and seems to be ready to buy anything that tends to stand in his way. The APC candidate is hampered by both personal history and his Party’s bad image in the constituency.
APC would have had a chance if the Omuma magic wasn’t busted early enough. It is however important for all political actors to be vigilant because my governor will spill blood to show that he is not an outcast in his home constituency. Any little slumbering there, we might wake up to hear stories that touch.
4. NINN: PDP/APC: Ozurigbo Ugonna is unarguably the best performing federal House member at present in Imo State. He has earned his popularity and acceptability across the constituency. He is not riding on the strength of a political Party, but on far-reaching goodwill and acceptability across Party lines.
Harrison Nwadike of the APC is standing a slim chance due to his affinity with the incumbent and the fact that a lot of the forces of State power are concentrated in that constituency, but if BVAS works and the right logistics is deployed towards ensuring the sanctity of our elections, OZB will make the APC look too weak and insignificant that the governor may consider a cabinet overhaul before his ousting by November.
5. Owerri: PDP/LP: Like most incumbents, Honourable Elezianya is not enjoying the best of popularity among his constituents, but it is expected that the combination of Emeka Ihedioha and Uche Onyeagucha’s reach in the zone would work to his advantage.
However, should Toochi Okere of the Labour Party do his homework well, by especially, distancing himself from the alleged failings of Onyewuchi, he might spring a major upset in the election with a good victory.
The APC and APGA candidates are not in the race, but like in every election, three weeks is a long time for some catching up and overtaking.
6. Mbaike: APC/APGA: Young, vibrant and seemingly accessible, Akarachi Amadi may have clinched the APC ticket riding on the goodwill and contacts of his father, but he has since then moved away from his father’s shadows and brought some creativity and dynamism to bear in propelling his candidacy.
He has been able to achieve a distinction between Party and person, and it appears that while Mbaike people detest the broom wielders, they have some faith in the young man to represent them well.
Henry Nwawuba, attempting to equal the record of late Bethel Amadi by achieving a third term is one APGA candidate that stands a chance of victory in this election. Nwawuba was denied PDP’s ticket, but he seems to have left a carcass to the current holder of the PDP ticket and should everything remain the way they are, he might run away victorious, especially, as Akarachi will be battling it out with two other strong candidates in his own Ikeduru LGA; the LP’s Uche Ogbuagu and the PDP’s Usmond Ukanacho.
7. Aboh-Ngor-Okpala: LP/… The outcome of this contest is too early to determine. I do not know the other candidates in this election, but with the PDP, technically not having a candidate, 21 days before the election, it is almost certain that the race will be left for the smaller Parties.
APC has a lousy candidate, and even though you do not discountenance anything in politics, I do not see Emeka Ihedioha sleeping over an APC sweeping his backyard. The former governor’s endorsement will most likely determine who wins this seat, and it could be any small Party if the LP does not succeed in swaying his support to their candidate.
8. Ahiazu-Ezinihitte: PDP/APC: From my analysis, this should be a three-horse race between the PDP, APC and LP, but I am giving the victory to the PDP with the APC coming a distant second.
However, anything can change, and I won’t be completely surprised to see a surge in the acceptability of the LP candidate, but given that the incumbent who is flying the PDP flag seems to have reasonably consolidated his support base if what the media has on him is anything to go by, I expect the combined factors of Mbaise’s affinity with the PDP and zoning sentiments to see the fair-skinned legislator run away victorious.
9. Okigwe South: APC/PDP: This is the second federal constituency where the APC stand a realistic chance of victory, and this is to the credit of the individual whose face is on the ticket.
Chike Okafor, a former banker turned politician, has worked to earn the trust of a number of his people, and most of them are not listening to the very strong argument on zoning and the so-called equity charter.
While his closest rival on paper is the former Deputy Speaker of the House of Assembly, Jonas Okeke, an Austin Nwachukwu of the LP, can spring a last-minute surge that might change the whole outlook.
But for now, there are only two candidates that are seriously in the race, and Chike; with a combination of money, good performance and an appealing personality stand a good chance to win.
10. Okigwe North: LP/PDP: The silence of Senator Ifeanyi Ararume makes predicting this a hard job. For a man of his influence, it is not possible for him not to give a part-minute directive on where his supporters should cast their vote.
Chikwem Onuoha takes the first position in my prediction because of his assumed affinity with the Ararumes. This race is between the leaders; Ararume, Tony Chukwu, Ohakim, etc.
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The PDP candidate, Onwubuariri is a candidate to be watched closely, even though he might be hampered by a combination of factors, including zoning sentiments, with his acclaimed deep pocket and affinity with the youths, he might yet pull off another victory that will see him in the Green Chambers.
- Credit: ONWUASOANYA FCC JONES
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